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If Bama can't win out, SEC has tough road to BCS title game

STORY TOOLS

This would be a fantastic weekend in college football for one of those goofy names ESPN or any other network likes to throw out like “Separation Saturday.”

Truly, there could be some major changes when the second Bowl Championship Series standings arrive Sunday, with No. 1 Texas playing No. 6 Oklahoma State and No. 3 Penn State visiting No. 9 Ohio State.

Even No. 2 Alabama faces a trap game on the road against a Tennessee team trying to save coach Phil Fulmer’s job.

And No. 7 Georgia is in a must-win situation to stay in the national hunt when the Bulldogs visit No. 13 LSU in the bayou.

Right now, the BCS standings look like a big jumbled mess, leaving us no clear picture on who will face whom in January for the title. In fact, I spent a fair amount of time this week trying to grasp an understanding of all the numbers and various outcomes of the standings.

In the end, since I don’t have a degree from MIT, my time proved fairly unfruitful.

What I did infer is that the Big 12 has a huge chance of sending someone to the title game. Sure, it took first-grade math to tell me that (three teams, including No. 4 Oklahoma, hold six spots), but which one and its opponent will have to be decided in the coming weeks.

Unfortunately for the SEC, its chances are looking a bit grim. I said at the start of the year that whoever wins the conference championship should make the national title game. Now, UGA is the highest-ranked team from the East, with Florida at No. 10, a very low spot for a talented Gator team. Both schools already have one loss, meaning Nov. 1s meeting in Jacksonville, Fla., eliminates one from the title picture.

The winner, however, could be the SEC’s best chance at getting into the national title because it’s hard believing that the Crimson Tide can win out. In the last 10 seasons, only two teams have gone undefeated in SEC — Auburn in 2004 and Tennessee in 1998.

If Alabama doesn’t fall by upset or to either Tiger squad left on its schedule, it’ll still have to beat the Gators or Bulldogs in the SEC championship game. A loss that late in the year wouldn’t keep the Tide high enough to make the big game.

Those troubles could open up the window for none other than Southern Cal. The No. 5 Trojans were nearly written off after Oregon State’s upset on Sept. 25, and if they win out they’ll benefit the most if all the SEC schools have at least one loss.

The Pac-10 is terrible and won’t help USC’s schedule strength. But a team is rewarded much greater for a loss earlier in the year than later. That’s the ugliness of this system.

I could, however, be completely wrong and this BCS system will work out quite fine.

Yeah, right.

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