Virginia vs. Clemson

When Virginia has the ball

The Cavaliers have the ACC’s worst total and scoring offense, averaging 266 yards and 19.8 points per game (they’re ranked 118th nationally in total offense). After last season, Al Groh fired his son Mike as offensive coordinator and brought former Bowling Green coach Gregg Brandon in to run a spread system. It hasn’t worked, and the Cavaliers still have yet to truly establish a starting quarterback, although Jameel Sewell is the top option. Clemson’s defense ranks 14th nationally, and the Tigers have thrived against far more talented quarterbacks than Sewell. They’ll be motivated, too, with an ACC Atlantic Division title on the line.

Edge: Clemson

When Clemson has the ball

Clemson’s offense has thrived in a five-game winning streak, averaging 42.8 points per game. The offensive line’s emergence as a force is a big reason why; Clemson has rushed for at least 240 yards in each of the last three games for the first time since 2000. Freshman quarterback Kyle Parker has become coolly efficient, and tailback C.J. Spiller – playing his final home game today – is an all-around force and legit Heisman Trophy candidate. With Clemson on split-national TV today, this could be another showcase for his candidacy. The Cavaliers play a straight 3-4 defense, something the Tigers haven’t seen all season; they like to clog rushing lanes with large, bulky linemen. Senior Nate Collins has five sacks, sixth in the ACC, and freshman linebacker Steve Greer ranks sixth in the league with 79 tackles. Statistically, the Cavs (345 ppg, 24 ppg) are a middle-of-the-pack defense.

Edge: Clemson

Special teams

Spiller and Jacoby Ford remain perhaps the nation’s top kick return duo; they’ve combined for five kick return scores this season. But Clemson’s kicking game is a huge issue. Spencer Benton missed two more extra points last week; he and Richard Jackson have combined to miss five in the last two games, and today’s kicker will likely be a game-time decision. Virginia’s Chase Minnifield averages 25.1 yards per kick return, fourth in the ACC. Punter Jimmy Howell averages 40.5 yards per boot, just ahead of Clemson’s Dawson Zimmerman at 39.7.

Edge: Clemson

The bottom line

It has come to this: win and they’re in. With a victory over Virginia today, the Tigers clinch their first ACC title game berth. Heck, if North Carolina beats Boston College, they’ll clinch likely before kickoff. But Dabo Swinney says that won’t affect his team’s preparation; finishing “like champions” is his main objective. Virginia just appears to be playing out the string before Al Groh’s inevitable departure; they’ve lost four straight, never scoring more than 17 points. The Cavs won’t go down too easily, but expect a long overdue celebration in Death Valley tonight.

Prediction: Clemson 27, Virginia 10